After a tough couple of years and some changes of leadership at key companies, Scotch whisky is starting to steady the ship, as Ben Challen takes a look at the numbers from HMRC...

While the romantics may be looking ahead to Saturday, Scotch whisky investors have had their eyes on a different date in the calendar, with today’s figures from HMRC completing the set for 2025 and allowing us to see the full picture of how Scotland’s biggest product is performing on the global stage.

Exports were down 0.6% by value and 4.3% in volume to hit a total of £5.36bn. Interestingly, this marks a slight reverse of the trend in 2024, where export values dipped by 4% but volumes actually increased.

The interpretation back then was that distillers were taking a hit on margins in order to work through excess stocks, and so the flipping of this trend suggests that brands are happier with their stock levels now and ready to return to the mantra of premiumisation.

The average price per litre rose 4% to £14.27, though this was far from a global trend – China, for example, cut its net spend per litre by 12%, but saw volumes increase by 14%. Scotch whisky producers seem to have cut prices to gain a foothold in a competitive market – they will hope that Sir Keir Starmer’s deal with China to halve tariffs will allow them to keep the ball rolling and realise the government’s hopes of a £250m boost to the UK economy.

Balancing the drop off in Asia, Latin America continued its return to form. A historically volatile market, exports to LatAm grew by 16% in 2025, a second consecutive strong year after falling off sharply in 2023.

Another big success story was Turkey. As we reported last May,  Turkey has rapidly become one of Scotch whisky’s key markets, and 2025 continued this rise to the top with exports climbing 43% in value, and a total of 442% since 2019. According to Bahar Ucanlar, MD of Diageo Turkey, Scotch whisky now accounts for around 10% of alcohol consumed, where ten years ago that figure was barely 1%, and the country is now the fifth largest importer of Scotch whisky in the world.

In the words of industry veteran and WhiskyInvestDirect director Rupert Patrick, “It’s great to see growth in some smaller markets coming through. Who would have guessed, a few years ago, that Turkey would show such growth? This is a great tribute to the long term Scotch whisky  brand building that is going on behind the scenes year in year out.”

Beyond these markets, it very much seemed like business as usual. Exports to the USA dropped by 4% amid an environment of tariff volatility – losses in Scotch whisky’s biggest market are never easy to bear, but producers will hope to have weathered this storm. Meanwhile shipments to India grew by 15% in value, even before the long-awaited UK-India FTA and reduction in tariffs kicks in over the course of 2026.

As Rupert Patrick says, “These numbers will be very comforting for many in the Scotch industry, especially those who haven’t experienced the ups and downs of a typical Scotch cycle.

“The market has stabilised after a tricky 18 months and it’s beginning to look like it was indeed a correction rather than an underlying consumer demand issue. As always, patience from brand owners, stock holders and indeed all stakeholders, will be rewarded as the market ticks up.”

At the end of the day, these figures don’t signal a glorious return to growth for Scotch whisky. It’s clear that the overfilling of 2022 has not quite worked its way through the system yet. However, it’s also clear that no-one in the industry is panicking. As has happened in the past, distillers are producing less and letting the time lag inherent to whisky maturation work itself out in the long run. With age-old Scottish grit, we continue.