From peak Scotch in 2022, when the industry's exports broke the £6 billion barrier, there has been a painful readjustment, but the fall seems to have flattened out, albeit not in the crucial US market. Ian Fraser sifts through the figures and finds some cause for cheer …

The latest HMRC export figures, which were republished by the Scotch Whisky Association last Thursday, might have been seen as a reason to be cheerful, suggesting the global market for Scotch whisky is showing signs of stabilizing after three years of steady decline. 

And, taking the last pre-Covid year – 2019 – as a starting point, the figures do provide evidence of Scotch's resilience against a turbulent market backdrop, with overall Scotch whisky exports rising by nearly 9.4% by value (given the rise in exports from  £4.91bn in 2019 to  £5.36bn last year) and by 2.3% by volume (given the rise from 1.31 billion 70cl bottles in 2019 to 1.34bn last year) over a six-year period. 

This was certainly how Machiel Jimmink, senior investment adviser at Scotch Whisky Investments, saw it. He said: "These figures suggest the industry is starting to steady the ship after a tough couple of years. The trend reversed from 2024, when values fell but volumes rose, indicating producers have now worked through excess stock and are returning to premiumisation. The figures point to greater stability and renewed confidence across key markets."

And speaking to WID last week, Rupert Patrick, founder and CEO at James Eadie, said: "These numbers will be very comforting for many in the Scotch industry… The market has stabilised after a tricky 18 months and it's beginning to look like it was indeed a correction rather than an underlying consumer demand issue."

It may therefore seem strange that the Scotch Whisky Association chose to accentuate the negative when putting its own spin on HMRC's numbers. In a press release headlined "SCOTCH WHISKY EXPORTS TO UNITED STATES DOWN 15% SINCE TARIFFS IMPLEMENTED," the SWA called on Sir Keir Starmer's UK government to finalise a deal with the US for a return to the halcyon days of zero-tariff trade, a plan which the Association said both Starmer and Scotland's first minister John Swinney have already directly raised with Trump. The SWA added: "The acute effect of the 10% tariff is clear, with a -7% drop in export value and a -15% fall in volume between May and December 2025."

In highlighting the damaging effects of Trump's tariffs – the ones he introduced with a flourish in the White House rose garden on 2 April 2025 – are having on the trade, the release arguably turned what might have been a neutrally-informative release on global export performance – or even a celebration of stabilization – into more of a campaigning tool, and gave a clear steer to the media.  

However, John Laurie, managing director of Glenturret, believes the SWA made the right call saying "I believe the SWA are correct in painting the stark picture they do. Without some political support, many of these challenges won't be eased."

And if the current 10% US tariffs weren't bad enough, there's also a danger that US tariffs will be hiked to 35% on single malts, once the five-year suspension on malt tariffs end in July. Last time around from 2019-21 they cost the industry over £600m in lost exports.

Leonard Russell, MD of Broxburn-based Ian Macleod Distillers whose brands include Glengoyne, Tamdhu, and Rosebank, said a rerun of the Airbus-Boeing tariffs "could be devastating for the industry".

Single malt already seems to be struggling even before such a possibility. As a category, single malt exports fell by 6% to £1.6bn in 2025, and were down by even greater margins in China (-16%), France (-13%) and Singapore (-21%). Single malts, usually sold at a hefty premium to blends, accounted for 29% of total Scotch value exports during 2025. "I consider single malts to be a good barometer of consumer confidence among wealthier people. But you don't see many people celebrating at the moment," said IMD's Russell. He added that the build-up of US military presence in the Gulf states of Bahrain, Oman and Qatar amid talk of a possible war with Iran is doing nothing for consumer confidence. 

Bottled blended Scotch is doing better. Not only did it account for 60% of value exports, with total value exports of £3.2bn, exports of bottled blends rose by 0.8% in 2025. Meanwhile bulk whisky is also on a moderately upwards trajectory, accounting for 10.2% of value exports in 2025. Martin Purves, author of Commercial Spirits Intelligence, says "bulk exports have saved the trade in recent years."

Evidence of shifting geographic trends came from the fact Australia, Japan and Latvia have all dropped out of the spirit's top ten export markets by value over the past decade, to be replaced by India, Turkey and Taiwan. As we reported in May 2025, Turkey has come from nowhere to become one of Scotch's most auspicious markets, with value exports to the country surging 43% to £255m by value in 2025 (up from £53m in 2015). The predominantly Muslim country of 88m people is now the fifth-largest importer of Scotch whisky in the world, ahead of Taiwan, Spain, Germany, China and UAE. 

Moving to volume, India (up 15% to the equivalent of 220m 70cl bottles) cemented its lead over France which fell 14% to 152m bottles, while Mexico and Latvia both dropped off the top ten chart to be replaced by Turkey and China. The export surge to India predated the slashing of Indian tariffs from 150% to 75%, which is due to happen this Easter when the UK-India FTA is set to come into force.

John Laurie, MD of Crieff-based Glenturret, also highlighted another key market that signed an FTA with the UK last December. "Global trends affect different businesses in different ways. One market that doesn't even appear in the top ten of the SWA list, is South Korea, which for us was our strongest growing market in 2025.  We have also found some positivity in Latin America, Middle East and Africa (particularly Dubai). Being smaller and agile can often help navigate the tough headwinds that the industry is facing, but doesn't make you immune to them."

Russell said: "I think the next few months are going to continue to be painful and unpleasant for most [Scotch whisky producers] but the overstocking issue should have resolved itself by the end of 2026. By then, the market should have bottomed out, with a return to growth early next year."