The drink's biggest market appears stuck in second gear, but that's true of all spirits unless pre-mixed as a canned or bottled RTD. And at least Scotch and its big brands are not quite as reliant on the US as Tequila and Cognac, reports Tom Bruce-Gardyne …

As we reported, the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) focused on the US in its headline announcing the 2025 export figures for the industry. Tracking the monthly data, it revealed that volumes fell 15% after Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs last April, while value fell 7%. The full year figures were marginally better, possibly due to some stocking up in advance.

Right now, our 'preferential' 10% rate has been hiked to 15% along with the rest of the world following the US Supreme Court ruling. Spain has since been threatened with a total trade ban for being unsupportive of Trump's war plans in Iran, and perhaps the UK will be next despite our alleged 'special relationship'.

Adding to the woes is the grim prospect of single malt tariffs of 25% returning in July, after they were paused for five years in 2021 by President Biden. Compounded with the above tariffs, the result would be catastrophic for the category in its most valuable market. US imports of malts were worth £359 million last year, slightly up on 2024, and well over double the next biggest market – France.

No doubt there is furious lobbying behind the scenes by the SWA and the Distilled Spirits Council of the US (DISCUS) with its 'Toasts not Tariffs' campaign. Although, what really matters is the underlying tussle between Boeing and Airbus over subsidies.

For a totally unsubsidised industry like whisky, it is galling to be caught in the crossfire of a completely unrelated trade dispute that has ground on for years. Last time around, the SWA estimated that it cost the industry over £600m.

Will it happen? Trevor Stirling, senior analyst and MD for European and American beverages at Bernstein, shrugs. "To be honest, with the American government the left hand doesn't know what the right is doing," he says. "It's what President Trump tweets when he gets out of bed in the morning."

Last month DISCUS held its Annual Economic Briefing. Overall US spirits revenue has more than doubled in the past two decades, rising steadily before accelerating to peak at US$37.7bn in 2023. Last year it slipped to US$36.4bn, while volume rose 1.9% to the equivalent of 318m 9 litre cases.

DISCUS blamed the "challenging market dynamics" of 2025 on three key factors: Consumer sentiment has declined to historic lows / Persistent inflation, especially in housing, healthcare and insurance continues to erode discretionary income / Younger adults relatively new to the workforce have lower purchasing power.

To adapt the old Bill Clinton campaign catchphrase "it was the economy, stupid". There was no mention of weight-loss drugs or sober-curious Millennials dampening demand. This ties with the Scotch industry's belief that the current downturn is cyclical rather than structural.

And yet in America, there's no question that Scotch is a diminishing presence in the market compared to what it was. By supplier revenue it has fallen to tenth among spirits, and well below the leaders – US whiskey, Tequila, vodka, and now biggest of all, as of last year, pre-mixed cocktails, or spirit-based RTDs (ready-to-drink) whose sales have almost quadrupled in just five years.

In 2025 Americans drank a staggering quantity of RTDs – the equivalent of 85.6m 9 litre cases, up 17% on the previous year, and the only spirits category in growth according to DISCUS. By contrast, Scotch sold 7.3m cases, down 6.5% on 2024. By value, RTDs were fourth at US$3.8b, comfortably ahead of Scotch on just over US$2b following a 5.5% drop last year.  

For reasons not entirely clear, it has chosen to skip the great RTD party in America. While countless vodkas, Tequilas and US whiskeys are surfing this booming category with its accessible price-points, and reaping the brand exposure that brings, Scotch sits meekly on the sidelines. It certainly feels like a missed opportunity.

"In the US it's probably true that Scotch has become less important because of the growth of Tequila, but I don't think that's because of Diageo deliberately de-emphasising it," says Trevor Stirling. "If the US is roughly 40% of its business, Scotch in the US is at most 15%. It is much smaller than Tequila or Canadian whisky." Don Julio, Casamigos and Crown Royal are Diageo's three biggest brands there.

By Bernstein's calculations, Johnnie Walker has about 7% of the company's US business, Buchannan's has around 3%, and single malts add another 2%. As a result, Stirling reckons "5% of Diageo's global net sales is Scotch in the US, at most. So, it's not the be all and end all."

Back at its Economic Briefing – DISCUS insisted there was no evidence of "de-premiumisation" in 2025 if you strip out RTDs. 'High-end premium' and 'super-premium', which sit above 'value' and 'premium' within the four price bands, retained almost the exact same volume share (41.4%) as in 2024. However, in terms of supplier revenue, there has been trading-down.

For Scotch, 'premium' blends which include Johnnie Walker Red and Dewar's White Label fell 7.9% by volume. The band above, which includes Johnnie Walker Black and Chivas Regal, dropped 7.3%, while the much smaller 'super-premium' category of blends like Johnnie Walker Blue actually grew 1.2%.

While for single malts, last year's fall was 3.5% in 'high-end premium' and 3.8% in 'super-premium', and here, according to Stirling – "You do see a bit more discounting, but we're not seeing a broad-scale price war."

Right now, the mood is undeniably sombre for Scotch in its biggest market. And yet even now there will be brands in bed with the right distributors, targeted on a few key states or cities, that are doing well. It is a big country after all.